There's a little something for everyone in the NIE (as usual). But still... Bill Roggio:
Most significantly, the NIE states that shift from a counterinsurgency role to a counterterrorism and support role, or the “strategic redeployment” of US forces, would squander the progress of the past year and lead to further instability in Iraq. “We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far,” the NIE concluded. “The impact of a change in mission on Iraq’s political and security environment and throughout the region probably would vary in intensity and suddenness of onset in relation to the rate and scale of a Coalition redeployment.”
This would mean John Warner's suggestion to begin a drawdown of troops in the next few months could possibly erase any progress made by the surge.
Oh, and the NIE also noted the falling support for al Qaeda, and the recent drop in the numuber of insurgent attacks. More from Gateway Pundit.
Update: "Expert" wisdom from MissLaura, of DailyKos, just days before the NIE is released: The Surge is Not the Solution.
Update: Predictably, other liberal Blogs like CarpetBagger completely ignore the positive news from the NIE.