Thursday, August 16, 2007

Liberal Prof. Juan Cole Only Sees Defeat

...and he comments on a congratulatory post by ThinkProgress on his interview. Defeatist Juan Cole on PBS News Hour:

"This kind of violence is unstoppable by military means."


You know, the number of Iraqis killed went up 25 percent in July over June. The number of troops killed in July was twice what it ordinarily has been in July.

Oh no? What about today's news that Iraq PM, President Announce New Alliance

When a commenter on ThinkProgress challenges Cole's use of numbers:

9. If you dig through the numbers you can always find something to say. If the bombings are down then you dig through all the ways people can die and find the one that is up. That is a poor handling of statistics from what I can tell.

According to civilian deaths have dropped dramatically as a whole in Iraq since the surge began. He says there has been a 25% increase in July over June. He is right but have a look at those numbers in context:

Jan 07 - 1802
Feb 07 - 3014
Mar 07 - 2977
Apr 07 - 1821
May 07 - 1980
June 07 - 1345
July 07 - 1690

Does that look like we have taken a step back? He said July deaths were 200% what is normally is in July. Do you know what the toll was in July 06? 1280. That means July 07 should have been over 2500 deaths to make the 200% mark.

Also, his reasoning about the increase of sniper related deaths is like saying car accident deaths are down as a whole but this new seat belt initiative isn’t working because car accident deaths by blunt trauma are up.

I just don’t buy it. Have a look at the numbers and you will see this guy is blowing smoke.Comment by Matt Dabbs — August 16, 2007 @ 11:43 am

Juan Cole replies!:

Have a look at the numbers and you will see this guy is blowing smoke.Comment by Matt Dabbs

Hmmm... Juan Cole followed up on the post, and commented on the one critical reaction of a liberal blog. Touchy, huh? No wonder one of his cronies (Or Mr. Cole himself), characterized me as "sleazy" for publishing my email exchange with him. It seems Cole stands up for his own words.)

Reminds me of another Professor determined to undermine American efforts.

there’s no sign of a political solution to this

Oh no? What about today's news that Iraq PM, President Announce New Alliance

To continue questioning Cole's argument, you would think Cole would at least balance his sophism by presenting some evidence of progress, such as the fact that: Al Qaeda in Iraq Has Lost 75% of Civilian Leadership.

Or that attacks in Ramadi, once considered the most violent city in Iraq, averaged from 40 a day in early 2007, to 1 a day.

One would hope that Cole could at least pull a shred of positive news from Iraq underneath his suspicious numbers. Like Blogging from Michael Totten (In Iraq, by the way):

“If someone sets up a mortar,” said Lieutenant Colonel Wilson A. Shoffner, “we get phone calls from the locals before it is fired. We reached a tipping point here where we have more friends than the insurgents.”

And other encouraging comments by our soldiers in the field, such as:
The locals want us here now because we pushed the insurgents out and are keeping them out.”

Granted, as Totten noted, the news is certainly not all good:

The peace, though, isn’t stable. Many areas of Baghdad have been cleared – even the notoriously violent Haifa Street neighborhood – but insurgents and terrorists need only drive a few minutes to get from one of their strongholds to another part of the city.

CAMP TAJI — Concerned Iraqi citizens recently fed tips to Soldiers from the 1st “Ironhorse” Brigade Combat Team (BCT), 1st Cavalry Division, which led to four weapons caches and two detained suspects during multiple operations north of Baghdad.

What say you, Mr. Cole?

I’m afraid I don’t think, if the report is honest, we’re going to see a lot of progress here.

Juan Cole doesn't want America to win, then he loses his talking points and talk show invites.

Meanwhile, our military progress has become undeniable. Even Democratic presidential aspirants have started hedging their peace-at-any-price positions. To the horror of al Qaeda and left-wing bloggers alike, cutting and running is starting to look unfashionable.


That said, we're not really in Iraq for Iraq's sake now, but for our own. The long-mismanaged situation has morphed from a grand attempt to create a model democracy in the Middle East to become a fight for our strategic security - knocking al Qaeda down, keeping Iran out (see sidebar) and shaping a new Iraq that's at least benign where our interests are concerned.

Even Democrat Senator Dick Durbin and Congressman Keith Ellison have been forced to admit the military progress.

Denial and self-service are powerful forces.

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