JD Johannes' Predictions:
If the Anbar Awakening works, AQIZ is in trouble and will be seen as losing not only the war against the U.S. but of losing support among their core constituency--Sunni Muslims.
Baghdad will be increasingly violent because if the surge shows even some signs of success, it will be extended and therefore deny victory to those who profit by chaos and a U.S. departure.
The best way for AQIZ and Jaysh al Mahdi puppet masters to derail the surge and the awakening is through spectacular violence--truck bombs, suicide vest bombs, suicide attacks on coalition bases and increasingly violent ways to carry out the sectarian murder campaigns.
The spectacular generates news media coverage and ratings points that drown out all other facts and progress leading public opinion to an ill informed conclusion--that the whole project should be abandoned because it cannot be won.
As the summer wears on expect more spectacular and more frequent