Irony

Jeffrey Goldberg:

"Jews are floating around in the Persian Gulf with nuclear weapons in German subs that are aimed at the new Hitler. If you step away from your personal feelings about it, it’s just fascinating."

Just who is crazy?

John Bolton or Allison Kilkenny?

Maybe Nukes Aren't So Bad

Thomas P.M. Barnett, writing in Esquire, is certain to make the anti-war crowd apoplectic:

George W. Bush had his "axis of evil," while Obama seems to find nuclear weapons to represent a kind of natural evil unto themselves — no matter who possesses them. Now the twentysomethings in Prague may have cheered his invocations of "hope" and "change," and others may be jumping on board, but I've discovered something in my years of global-strategy analysis, and it's not the deadly fatalism Obama describes — it's the modern realism he ignores: Nuclear weapons are the single best thing that has ever happened in mankind's long history of war.

Barnett is no raging neo-con, and he has been highly critical of Bush on more than one occasion.

More Syrian/Iranian Intrigue

First, from the Jerusalem Post, Oops: 'Dozens died in Syrian-Iranian chemical weapons experiment'

Proof of cooperation between Iran and Syria in the proliferation and development of weapons of mass destruction was brought to light Monday in a Jane's Defence Weekly report that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers were killed in a July 23 accident in Syria.

According to the report, cited by Channel 10, the joint Syrian-Iranian team was attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a Scud missile when the explosion occurred, spreading lethal chemical agents, including sarin nerve gas.

H/T Powerline

More from Gateway Pundit.

Regarding the Israeli strike on Syria, Bret Stephens adds to the commentary:

What's beyond question is that something big went down on Sept. 6. Israeli sources had been telling me for months that their air force was intensively war-gaming attack scenarios against Syria; I assumed this was in anticipation of a second round of fighting with Hezbollah. On the morning of the raid, Israeli combat brigades in the northern Golan Heights went on high alert, reinforced by elite Maglan commando units. Most telling has been Israel's blanket censorship of the story--unprecedented in the experience of even the most veteran Israeli reporters--which has also been extended to its ordinarily hypertalkative politicians. In a country of open secrets, this is, for once, a closed one.

And North Korea...

As for the North Korean theory, evidence for it starts with Pyongyang. The raid, said one North Korean foreign ministry official quoted by China's Xinhua news agency, was "little short of wantonly violating the sovereignty of Syria and seriously harassing the regional peace and security." But who asked him, anyway? In August, the North Korean trade minister signed an agreement with Syria on "cooperation in trade and science and technology." Last week, Andrew Semmel, the acting counterproliferation chief at the State Department, confirmed that North Korean technicians of some kind were known to be in Syria, and that Syria was "on the U.S. nuclear watch list." And then there is yesterday's curious news that North Korea has abruptly suspended its participation in the six-party talks, for reasons undeclared.

This is all confusing and speculative... but intriguing nonetheless.

Newfound French Belligerence Toward Iran

Just as Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov said today:

“We are convinced that no modern problem has a military solution, and that applies to the Iranian nuclear programme as well”

...Iran threatens missile attacks on US targets:

Iran threatened to fire long-range missiles at American targets in the Middle East yesterday as the war of words between Teheran and the West continued to escalate.

A senior commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the largest component of the Islamic republic's armed forces, chose this moment to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles.

The Shahab-3 rocket has a range of 1,250 miles, allowing it to strike an array of Western targets across the Middle East.

"Today the Americans are around our country but this does not mean that they are encircling us. They are encircled themselves and are within our range," said Gen Mohammed Hassan Koussechi.

Lavrov's hopelessly idealistic comments were in response to France's increasingly stern rhetoric toward Iran. Captain Ed calls it The New French Realism:

"The change of government in Paris has given French diplomacy a new and welcome dose of realism. Bernard Kouchner has made it clear that Gallic patience has come to an end where Iran is concerned. If Iran continues in its nuclear intransigence, Kouchner announced, the world must prepare for war

"...In stark contrast to the role played by the Chirac government, Nicolas Sarkozy has made it plain that he wants to work with the US on security concerns in the Middle East. Iran used to be a major client for French industry, just as Iraq once was under Saddam Hussein. France therefore has had influence in Teheran that neither the British nor the US have had, but their attempts to use it to curtail the Iranian nuclear quest came to naught.

"Their sudden support for keeping military options open may get some attention from the mullahcracy."

Iran's state media has even taken the time to criticize the French as well. You know Sarkozy must be doing something right. France's rhetoric reminds me of a scene from Braveheart:

Stephen: Fine speech. Now what do we do?
William Wallace: Just be yourselves.
Hamish: Where are you going?
William Wallace: I'm going to pick a fight.
Hamish: Hope we didn't get dressed up for nothing.

Now what will the French do? Hold true to their word and stand by America.

Iran, Syria and North Korea Worse For The Wear

Former Spook laughs at Iran's promise of retaliation should Israel strike it or friend Syria:

For the record, Iran actually has two missiles capable of reaching Israel, the Shahab-3 (with a maximum range of 800 miles, and the recently-delivered BM-25, a North Korean derivative of the Soviet-designed, SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile (maximum range: 1500 miles). The operational status of the BM-25 is uncertain; a German diplomat reported last March that Iran had acquired 18 disassembled missiles from North Korea, presumably with a smaller number of launchers. Iran has never conducted a test launch of the BM-25, so it's unclear if the missile would be available for operations against Israel and U.S. targets in the Middle East.

As for the Shahab-3, that system attained its initial operating capability less than three years ago, after a long and troubled development. Most estimates place the number of Shahab-3 airframes in Iran at no more than 40, with a launcher inventory of less than half that total. Obviously, the number of available launchers is critical, since it limits the number of missiles that can be fired at any given time. So much for that 600 missile salvo.

Pat Dollard follows up: Iran Doesn’t Have 600 Missiles

Syria and North Korea's nuclear link is now confirmed.

Speaking of Iran, how is its proxy war in Iraq going?

The Revolutionary Guards, or at least the al Quds force (which specialize in supporting pro-Iranian terrorists in foreign countries) is having a hard time in Iraq. With the collapse of al Qaeda in Iraq (because the Sunni Arabs turned on them), U.S. troops are now concentrating on Iranian supported groups. Coalition commando forces are specifically looking to capture as many al Quds operatives as they can. As a result of this, Iran has been pulling its al Quds people out of Iraq. Those that have been captured so far have given up embarrassing and damaging information.

All this should add up to a wake-up call for Iran and Syria. They should be very shaken right now. And why?

the operation caught Damascus by surprise (there was apparently little reaction from Syria's air defense system); the Israelis inflicted serious damage on the target, and both the F-15I crews and the commandos escaped unscathed. Syria has threatened retaliation, but its options are limited.

and

Then, there's the matter of that commando team. If the Times is correct, those personnel arrived in the target area a day ahead of the fighters, inserted (we'll assume) by Israeli Sea Stallion helicopters. As we've noted before, the successful infiltration of a commando team by helicopter, deep into Syrian territory, is an impressive operational feat, indeed. But getting the commandos (and their choppers) all the way across Syria (and back again), undetected, represents a monumental challenge, even for a state-of-the-art military like the IDF.

It has also been learned that the strike was "coordinated" with the U.S.

Poor Iran. Even the French have deserted it. And now there are ever more rumors of war, as reports cite 2,000 targets in Iran. Three U.S. aircraft carriers are also now in the Persian Gulf.

Iran's woes deepen.

The Syria/Iran/North Korea Nexus

It was reported last week that the U.S. confirmed Israeli air strike on Syria:

A US official has confirmed that Israeli warplanes carried out an air strike "deep inside" Syria, escalating tensions between the two countries.

The target of the strike last Thursday remained unclear but Israeli media reported that a shipment of Iranian arms crossing Syria for use by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon was attacked.

Some have theorized that Israel was testing Syria's Russian-made missile defense system. Captain's Quarters disagrees:

Israel would not risk war with Syria just to test out an air defense system that Iran might get. They would risk war to stop Hezbollah from rearming to the point where they would launch another attack on Israel and provoke another war in the sub-Litani region, and they would have every right to do so.

So far, Israel has not spoken publicly of the flight/attack, only heightening speculation. The Economist reports however, that "Israeli air force officers are said to be jubilant about the mission's success." See maps here from Gateway Pundit.

Jules Crittenden thinks that "that what we’re seeing is the beginnings of a serious effort to put two of the world’s leading supporters of terrorism in a box." (H/T Instapundit)

And now, there are rumors of North Korean involvement in Syria. And Ace makes a good point:

That the Syrians are closed lipped and not flooding the zone with "oh poor innocent us" footage and pics of stuffed animals from the site speaks volumes about what got hit.

It also speaks volumes that Germany is fed up with Iran.

But were Syria and North Korea colluding to develop or distribute nuclear weapons? Captain Ed thinks so:

This operation had been planned since the spring, when the facility first came to the attention of the Israelis. The Syrians had apparently bought North Korean technology and materiel at about the time that Kim Jong-Il had started to cooperate with the West on nuclear disarmament. Analysts believe that Kim either hoped to hide his work by sharing it with the Syrians or just get as much hard currency as he could grab through proliferation. No one doubts that the Syrians would love to have nukes, nor does anyone doubt where those weapons would go -- and Israel, as they did with Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak, decided to eliminate the threat before it reached fruition.

And as Gateway Pundit noted, North Korea denounced the attack. While Syria issued a murky "Israel will pay." Hmmm. Perhaps North Korea was not simply shipping "cement," after all. Hot Air has a very good round up of the North Korean angle.

Rumors of Turkish assistance to the Israelis are also swirling.

And in related news, Russia is now ready to ship enriched uranium to Iran. This should come as no surprise. But this should: Iran accuses Canada of torture and racism

Canada? Yes, Canada.

Canada's envoy John Von Kaufmann said that Iran's "deteriorating human rights situation" contravened its international and domestic obligations, citing "treatment of women as second-class citizens" and suppression of peaceful demonstrations for women's rights. The complaints were echoed by those of the European Union. But Iran's envoy, A. Eshragh Jahromi, said that Canada should have its own record scrutinized.

Amnesty International responded:

"Such comparisons are nonsensical," says Pat Maguire, Persian Gulf co-ordinator for Amnesty International in Canada. "The human rights conditions in Iran are appalling, and bear no resemblance to Canada's."

Update: Tigerhawk does a great job keeping up with the story:

"...this is the really loud message -- the Arab world, taken as a whole, has responded with... silence. No other Arab government complained about the raid, forcing Syria to take its protest to the United Nations alone. No mobs poured into the famous "Arab street," no flags were burned, no cars torched, and no "rage boys" screamed into television cameras. The message to Syria and Iran could not have been more clear: The Arabs are far more worried about Iran and its satellites than they are about Israel."

Tigerhawk also notes that more information is emerging:

By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy to work where nuclear weapons are at stake.

As a bonus, the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.

This "historic" event is being compared to the 1981 Israeli attack on Iraq's nuclear reactor in Osirak.

Who's your Daddy, now, Ahmadinejad?

Israeli Flyover of Syria Theory

The plot thickens.

Via Hot Air:

Debka floats a not-unlikely theory about that strange Israeli flyover of Syria a few days ago. Apparently, the IAF was able to jam the Russian-made Syrian anti-aircraft system; it so happens that Iran has the same system. You do the math.

Was it a dry run, so the Israelis could practice a pending attack on Iran, or just a veiled threat - a shot across Iran's bow to coax Ahmadinejad to rethink his nuclear ambitions?

The problem with an Israeli strike is that although they may be able to jam Syria and Iran's anti-missile systems, how will they defend a possible retaliatory rocket attack by Iran?

IRG Cash

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard... just what are they guarding?

No oversight Crucially important to U.S. officials weighing the possibility of sanctions is that the Guard presides over a multibillion- dollar income stream outside the scrutiny of Iran's parliament or the national budgeting process, according to many of those familiar with the Guard's operations.

Such a cash flow, Iranian opposition leaders and some analysts have argued, could be marshaled to finance clandestine military operations, such as support to Iraq's Shiite militias, weapons for Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters or clandestine nuclear development programs.

The controversial uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, which came to light in 2002, was developed under close supervision by the Revolutionary Guard without disclosure under the parliament's public budgeting process. Since then, U.S. officials have attempted to impose a series of sanctions to halt financing of Iran's nuclear and missile development programs.

The rest at the L.A. Times. "Progressives" may want to educate themselves on the IRG's dubious tactics before running to their defense. Especially when Iran's semi-fanatical leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says:

"Soon, we will see a huge power vacuum in the region. Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap, with the help of neighbors and regional friends like Saudi Arabia, and with the help of the Iraqi nation.”

Is that not reason enough to remain in Iraq and bolster its democracy?

"A nuclear-armed Iran is for me unacceptable"

The gauntlet has been thrown... by the French.

PARIS, Aug. 27 — In his first major foreign policy speech as president of France,Nicolas Sarkozy calling the Iranian nuclear crisis “the most serious weighing on the international order today” and said that Iran could be attacked militarily if it did not live up to its international obligations to curb its nuclear program.

“A nuclear-armed Iran is for me unacceptable,” Mr. Sarkozy said in a speech to France’s ambassadorial corps, stressing the urgency of finding a negotiated solution. “This approach is the only one that would prevent a catastrophic alternative: the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.”

He's not your daddy's French President.

_

P.S. - Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Billions of reasons why they're not simply a fighting force, and why hitting them in the pocket will hit Iran in the pocket.

Soltz: Wrong and Hypocritical

Jon Soltz, the smug leader of VoteVets on Hardball:

"I think that Dick Cheney, if he had it his way, would go with the neoconservative principles of forcible regime change. I mean, this is what expedited the Iranian nuclear program, there needs to be a policy in this country, never ever to let countries like Iran get Nuclear capacity."

Remember Soltz's argument for later. Soltz continued:

"The guy's [Cheney] out to lunch when it comes to protecting America, supporting the military, destroying al Qaeda."

How wrong is Soltz about the Vice President? This wrong:

Mr. Cheney has not moved on. He still awakens each day asking the same
questions he asked on Sept. 12, 2001. Then, as he sips his morning coffee, he pores over the latest intelligence on his own before receiving an exhaustive briefing on the latest threat reports. After that, he joins his boss for the president's daily intelligence briefing. All of this happens before 9 a.m. He mentions the war on terror in virtually every speech he gives, and in a letter he wrote to his grandchildren he acknowledged that his "principal focus" as vice president has been national security.

I swear, I have yet to watch him speak without brandishing his credentials:

"The difference between you and I is real simple, you're a Republican communications strategist, I'm an Iraq war veteran."

This is where the guy begins to lose it:

Our goal is to destroy al Qaeda, protect America, and limit countries like Iran from having nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, we have no military leverage with Iran, because all we have is air power, we have no ground component force to invade the country.

Republican guest:

Are you proposing a ground war on Iran? I don't think that's a very good decision.

Soltz:

I don't think so either.

Then why talk about troop strength?

Here's what he really wants, to promote himself:

I just recommend everybody goes to our website, StopIranWar.com, sign a petition, tell the President that we need to have diplomatic negotiations, high level diplomatic negotiations, with Iran, we need to look at Iran and create a shared vision.

Final question. How does his vow to "limit countries like Iran from having nuclear weapons" square with "high level diplomatic negotiations" to create a "shared vision?"

I suppose since Soltz is so full of it, he thinks he can talk Iran out of nuclear technology.

"Ahmadinejad Should Be Killed"

From the Telegraph:

"Ahmadinejad should be killed," chanted some of the protesters, who were denounced as "vandals" by state radio. Iran possesses the second-largest oil reserves in the world and produces 4.3 million barrels a day.

Couldn't happen to a nicer firebrand nationalist who is seeking nuclear weapons.

More from Gateway Pundit.

PJM has video.

Purple Hearts In Excess

This post by Instapundit blew me away:

SOME PERSPECTIVE: I was reading some stuff on the plans for invading Japan at the end of World War II when I ran across this:

Nearly 500,000 Purple Heart medals were manufactured in anticipation of the casualties resulting from the invasion of Japan. To the present date, all the American military casualties of the sixty years following the end of World War II — including the Korean and Vietnam Wars — have not exceeded that number. In 2003, there were still 120,000 of these Purple Heart medals in stock. There are so many in surplus that combat units in Iraq and Afghanistan are able to keep Purple Hearts on-hand for immediate award to wounded soldiers on the field.

And at current rates we'll still be using them for decades. My grandfather fought all across Europe, then got shipped to the Pacific in preparation for invading Japan. He was extremely happy that the war ended without that being necessary.

As devastating the losses we suffered during World War II, how much worse it could have been.

Update: The plot thickens - Wikipedia:

Redeployment

See also: Orders of battle for Downfall

Olympic was to be mounted with resources already present in the Pacific, including the British Pacific Fleet, a Commonwealth formation that included at least a dozen aircraft carriers and several battleships. The Australian First Tactical Air Force took part in the Philippines campaign (1944-45)

These would likely have augmented U.S. close air support units over Japan. The only major re-deployment for Olympic was Tiger Force, a Commonwealth long range heavy bomber unit, made up of more than 20 squadrons, scheduled to betransferred from RAF Bomber Command in Europe to airbases on Okinawa.

If reinforcements had been needed for Olympic, they could have been provided from forces being assembled for Coronet, which would have needed the redeployment of substantial Allied forces from Europe, South Asia, Australasia, and elsewhere. These would have included the U.S. First Army (15 divisions) and the Eighth Air Force, which were in Europe. The redeployment was complicated by the simultaneous partial demobilization of the U.S. Army, which drastically reduced the divisions' combat effectiveness, by stripping them of their most experienced officers and men.

My grandfather belonged to the 9th Division of the U.S. First Army. After fighting across North Africa, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe, it is very likely his feet would have landed on the shores of mainland Japan in what undoubtedly would have been one of the bloodiest battles in American history.

Who Fears Israel?

The adroit Michael Totten:

The fact that Arab governments threaten to build nuclear arsenals to counter Iran’s, but not Israel’s, all by itself tells you who and what they’re really afraid of. Blowback isn’t just for Americans anymore.

It's the simple truth.

What did the CIA know, or think they knew?

The CIA, Iraq, and what they told the president.

I have no idea how much weight President Bush gave to these intelligence reports. Maybe, by January 2003, he had given up on getting any meaningful input from agencies that were far more interested in protecting their own images and budgets, and perhaps in undermining an administration that did not share their overwhelmingly liberal and Democratic orientation, than in going out on a limb to give the President their best judgment.

You go, California!

PajamasMedia:

Surf's Not Up for the Mullahs

The California State Assembly is evidently fed up with Ahmadinejad & Company. They overwhelmingly passed a bill Thursday that would, if it also passes the State Senate and gets the Governor’s signature, require the state’s huge pension funds to divest all holdings in Iranian companies.

Good for them.

The Iranian Cold War

No war on terror? Then how about a Cold War with Iran?



The Telegraph: Where Iranian Insurgents Are Kings Of The Castle, courtesy Pat Dollard:

Each time the US soldiers peer from Qalalan’s walls, they see a stronger Iran. “That’s a new antenna right there,” said Sgt Marty Cole as he looked east through binoculars. “They’re building up over there. I’m sure it’s for no good.”

Bill Roggio: Targeting the Iranian "Secret Cells"

"There's no question, again, that Iranian financing is taking place through the Qods force of the Iranian Republican Guards Corps," General Petraeus noted, as documentation seized during raids provided evidence of this. Qods Force [or Jerusalem Force] is a branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and is responsible for planning and conducting foreign operations, intelligence gathering and terrorist activities. The unit works extensively with Hezbollah. Qods Force regularly uses its diplomatic missions to provide cover for its operatives.

Gateway Pundit: Iran Calls On Islamic States to Take Action Against Israel

Haddad-Adel wrote a letter to the parliament speakers of Islamic states on threshold of the 40th anniversary of occupation of Qods and religious and historical sites of the Palestinian people by the Zionist occupation forces, IRNA reported.

He called on his Islamic counterparts to take a coordinated and serious measure in this regard.

TigerHawk: Semaphores and gunboat diplomacy

In Iranian-American affairs, such as they are, the last thing we need right now is an accident. If we ever decide to fight back, we should make sure it is on purpose. Fortunately, the United States Navy, which has two centuries of diplomatic experience, understands that it needs to avoid fender-benders in the crowded waters of the Persian Gulf.

CounterTerrorism Blog: The US – Iran – Syria triangle

While many in the US are calling for a "dialog" with Syria, Tehran is very much noticing.

On somewhat of a side note... You know what would come in particularly handy if we were to go to war with Iran, or attempt to take out their nuclear program? Lots and lots of Navy Seals.

Missile Defense is a Joke to Iran

Prensa Latina reports that Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's National Security Supreme Council, called U.S. efforts to build a missile shield in Europe, "the joke of the year."

But President Vladimir Putin of Russia isn't laughing. And Europe is not laughing at Ahmadinejad's comments that Israel's destruction is near.

And of course, the UN is not laughing at Iran's nuclear program as new sanctions are urged.

These latest comments by the capricious Iranians highlight their diplomatic immaturity, and penchant for inflammatory statements.

They cannot be trusted.

Update: Wow. Powerline links to a New York Sun article about something else that is not very funny - an investigation into Iran's possible links to the JFK plot.

Update: Gateway Pundit quotes Mithal Al-Alusi, speaking at the Democracy & Security Conference in Prage - "Iran is the main problem in the region. They are spreading violence to Iran and Syria..."

Iran's Spin on Recent Talks with the U.S.

Iranian FARS News Agency:

Negotiations with US Displays Iran's High Potentials

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Americans requested negotiations with Iran becausewe maintained self-confidence and spoke from a powerful stance, said Ali Akbar Velayati, , Advisor to Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.

I was cautiously optimistic about the prospect of talks with Iran, hoping that some progress would be made. But reading about Iran's gloating after the meeting, coupled with the American media's penchant to accentuate the historic aspects of these high level talks, my stomach turns and I'm having second thoughts.

No Worries for the Next Holocaust

Much of the world has greeted Ahmadinejad’s promise to wipe Israel off the map with something close to insouciance. In fact, it could almost be said of the Europeans that they have been more upset by Ahmadinejad’s denial that a Holocaust took place 60 years ago than by his determination to set off one of his own as soon as he acquires the means to do so. In a number of European countries, Holocaust denial is a crime, and the European Union only recently endorsed that position. Yet for all their retrospective remorse over the wholesale slaughter of Jews back then, the Europeans seem no readier to lift a finger to prevent a second Holocaust than they were the first time around.

~ Norman Podhoretz, The Case for Bombing Iran

I don't know about the efficacy of his case, but that quote rings true to me.