Nicholas Guariglia writes:
"...start a serious reverse-propaganda program of beaming real information into North Korea, similar to Radio Free Europe at the end of the Cold War. We should weaken the tyrant’s rule from within; when done properly, it works almost every time. To paraphrase my friend Michael Ledeen: there are many ways to destroy a dictator when you have his oppressed people on your side."
First, from the Jerusalem Post, Oops: 'Dozens died in Syrian-Iranian chemical weapons experiment'
Proof of cooperation between Iran and Syria in the proliferation and development of weapons of mass destruction was brought to light Monday in a Jane's Defence Weekly report that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers were killed in a July 23 accident in Syria.
According to the report, cited by Channel 10, the joint Syrian-Iranian team was attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a Scud missile when the explosion occurred, spreading lethal chemical agents, including sarin nerve gas.
What's beyond question is that something big went down on Sept. 6. Israeli sources had been telling me for months that their air force was intensively war-gaming attack scenarios against Syria; I assumed this was in anticipation of a second round of fighting with Hezbollah. On the morning of the raid, Israeli combat brigades in the northern Golan Heights went on high alert, reinforced by elite Maglan commando units. Most telling has been Israel's blanket censorship of the story--unprecedented in the experience of even the most veteran Israeli reporters--which has also been extended to its ordinarily hypertalkative politicians. In a country of open secrets, this is, for once, a closed one.
As for the North Korean theory, evidence for it starts with Pyongyang. The raid, said one North Korean foreign ministry official quoted by China's Xinhua news agency, was "little short of wantonly violating the sovereignty of Syria and seriously harassing the regional peace and security." But who asked him, anyway? In August, the North Korean trade minister signed an agreement with Syria on "cooperation in trade and science and technology." Last week, Andrew Semmel, the acting counterproliferation chief at the State Department, confirmed that North Korean technicians of some kind were known to be in Syria, and that Syria was "on the U.S. nuclear watch list." And then there is yesterday's curious news that North Korea has abruptly suspended its participation in the six-party talks, for reasons undeclared.
Former Spook laughs at Iran's promise of retaliation should Israel strike it or friend Syria:
For the record, Iran actually has two missiles capable of reaching Israel, the Shahab-3 (with a maximum range of 800 miles, and the recently-delivered BM-25, a North Korean derivative of the Soviet-designed, SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile (maximum range: 1500 miles). The operational status of the BM-25 is uncertain; a German diplomat reported last March that Iran had acquired 18 disassembled missiles from North Korea, presumably with a smaller number of launchers. Iran has never conducted a test launch of the BM-25, so it's unclear if the missile would be available for operations against Israel and U.S. targets in the Middle East.
As for the Shahab-3, that system attained its initial operating capability less than three years ago, after a long and troubled development. Most estimates place the number of Shahab-3 airframes in Iran at no more than 40, with a launcher inventory of less than half that total. Obviously, the number of available launchers is critical, since it limits the number of missiles that can be fired at any given time. So much for that 600 missile salvo.
The Revolutionary Guards, or at least the al Quds force (which specialize in supporting pro-Iranian terrorists in foreign countries) is having a hard time in Iraq. With the collapse of al Qaeda in Iraq (because the Sunni Arabs turned on them), U.S. troops are now concentrating on Iranian supported groups. Coalition commando forces are specifically looking to capture as many al Quds operatives as they can. As a result of this, Iran has been pulling its al Quds people out of Iraq. Those that have been captured so far have given up embarrassing and damaging information.
the operation caught Damascus by surprise (there was apparently little reaction from Syria's air defense system); the Israelis inflicted serious damage on the target, and both the F-15I crews and the commandos escaped unscathed. Syria has threatened retaliation, but its options are limited.
Then, there's the matter of that commando team. If the Times is correct, those personnel arrived in the target area a day ahead of the fighters, inserted (we'll assume) by Israeli Sea Stallion helicopters. As we've noted before, the successful infiltration of a commando team by helicopter, deep into Syrian territory, is an impressive operational feat, indeed. But getting the commandos (and their choppers) all the way across Syria (and back again), undetected, represents a monumental challenge, even for a state-of-the-art military like the IDF.
It was reported last week that the U.S. confirmed Israeli air strike on Syria:
A US official has confirmed that Israeli warplanes carried out an air strike "deep inside" Syria, escalating tensions between the two countries.
The target of the strike last Thursday remained unclear but Israeli media reported that a shipment of Iranian arms crossing Syria for use by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon was attacked.
Israel would not risk war with Syria just to test out an air defense system that Iran might get. They would risk war to stop Hezbollah from rearming to the point where they would launch another attack on Israel and provoke another war in the sub-Litani region, and they would have every right to do so.
That the Syrians are closed lipped and not flooding the zone with "oh poor innocent us" footage and pics of stuffed animals from the site speaks volumes about what got hit.
This operation had been planned since the spring, when the facility first came to the attention of the Israelis. The Syrians had apparently bought North Korean technology and materiel at about the time that Kim Jong-Il had started to cooperate with the West on nuclear disarmament. Analysts believe that Kim either hoped to hide his work by sharing it with the Syrians or just get as much hard currency as he could grab through proliferation. No one doubts that the Syrians would love to have nukes, nor does anyone doubt where those weapons would go -- and Israel, as they did with Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak, decided to eliminate the threat before it reached fruition.
Canada's envoy John Von Kaufmann said that Iran's "deteriorating human rights situation" contravened its international and domestic obligations, citing "treatment of women as second-class citizens" and suppression of peaceful demonstrations for women's rights. The complaints were echoed by those of the European Union. But Iran's envoy, A. Eshragh Jahromi, said that Canada should have its own record scrutinized.
"Such comparisons are nonsensical," says Pat Maguire, Persian Gulf co-ordinator for Amnesty International in Canada. "The human rights conditions in Iran are appalling, and bear no resemblance to Canada's."
"...this is the really loud message -- the Arab world, taken as a whole, has responded with... silence. No other Arab government complained about the raid, forcing Syria to take its protest to the United Nations alone. No mobs poured into the famous "Arab street," no flags were burned, no cars torched, and no "rage boys" screamed into television cameras. The message to Syria and Iran could not have been more clear: The Arabs are far more worried about Iran and its satellites than they are about Israel."
By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy to work where nuclear weapons are at stake.
As a bonus, the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.
Massive area of destruction:Attacking hardened and deeply buried target is one of the Air Force 128's biggest challenges. They are meeting this challenge with a devastating new approach: a focused underground shockwave that amounts to an artificial earthquake.
At present the kinetic approach 128; “ a.k.a. 128 brute force" is favored; the most powerful weapon in the inventory is the BLU-113, a 4,600 lb weapon with a thick steel casing capable of piercing 22 feet of concrete -- or 100 feet of dirt -- before exploding. There are plans to go even bigger, with a monster 30,000 lb 128;˜Massive Ordnance Penetrator⦣128;™ which would take the maximum depth to 60 feet. That 128's about as big as you can carry on a plane.
We don't need to use Nukes:an array of 20 Deep Diggers would be detonated together to produce a shockwave which will collapse all underground structures to a depth of 300 feet over a 200-yard square area.
the Deep Digger array is more effective than a 340-kiloton nuclear weapon optimised to attack underground targets.
- Deep penetration means that all of the blast goes into creating an underground shockwave, not just digging a crater. For blasting rock, it's basic that the charge need to be drilled to a depth to be effective.
- Deep Digger parachutes down to a soft landing before digging in. Other bunker busters hit the ground very hard and experience a deceleration tens of thousands of g's. This affects their reliability, and the loss of a few warheads may make the whole array ineffective.
- Deep Digger may be able to maneuver underground, correcting the configuration of the array after it is in place.
Strategy Page has an article relating to the defection of North Korean Diplomats:
April 8, 2007: The North Korean regime has issued a strong "reminder" to its diplomats, and other personnel stationed abroad, that they are not to have more than one child with them on a foreign posting. This suggests North Korea is worried about possible defections by diplomats, consular officials, business agents, etc., who've got their wives and kids with them in some foreign country. If they can only take one child with them, those that remain home essentially become hostages to their good behavior. The North Korean government has become increasingly alarmed at the number of diplomats defecting and, even worse, those who stick around, but in the pay for American, South Korean and Chinese intelligence agencies.
The Daily NK reported, quoting North Korean informers, that a platoon of border guards in Hoiryeong district committed a mass defection.
The border guards reportedly escaped the central party’s combined inspection squad’s arrest and were pursued by North Korean agents in Manchuria.
The reliability of the news seems very high since more than one inside-source provided the news. If so, it must be treated as one of the most shocking North Korean news of these days.
Secretary of State Madeline Albright and North Korea's Dictator Kim Jong Il
We know how the first one turned out. The latter remains to be seen.
And let's not forget...
North Korea, which has exhibited similar bizarre behavior before, seems to have reached new lows of desperation. It is bad enough that communist party officials bleed their country dry to import luxury goods from Japan, China, Europe and the U.S. at their countrymen's expense. The North's downward spiral seems to be spinning to ever more fantastic depths. The question is - If a regime is willing to sacrifice its own citizens, whose corpses often lay decaying in the streets, while its elite party oligarchy get fat through extortion, bribery, thievery and the black market - does it not stand to reason they will stop at nothing to make money by any means... including illicit [nuclear] arms trade?A rabbit breeder who sold 12 of his animals to North Korea so the communist country could start its own breeding programme fears they have been eaten by officials.
Karl Szmolinsky sent the huge rabbits, which can grow as big as dogs and produce 15lb (7kg) of meat, to North Korea last year so they could be bred and used to ease desperate food shortages.
He thought they were being kept at a zoo in the capital Pyongyang and was planning to travel to the country after Easter to give advice on setting up a breeding facility.
But the 68-year-old says his trip has been cancelled and he suspects it may be because communist officials have eaten the rabbits, which he sold for a cut-price €80 (£54) each rather than the usual €200.
While a number of war critics at home have openly sided with our Islamic fascist enemies, (even secretly hoping for the U.S. to lose, as Dinesh D'Souza has pointed out), a number of our enemies have already gained a foothold on our shores.
The Politico reported that 'Axis' Nations Find Access to Representation last week.
Iraq, North Korea and Iran -- the bad-boy troika so named by President Bush in his 2002 State of the Union speech -- have all enlisted their own hired guns in Washington, even as they try to avoid damage from real guns overseas.
And as for Iran...North Korea is represented by the Institute for Business Development in Euro Asia Limited, which is based in London. It's a bit unclear from disclosure reports exactly what it is doing for a nation that has defied White House calls for abandonment of its nuclear weapons program. For $100,000 a year, the firm is facilitating "the creation of international joint ventures and other business partnerships." Nobody from the institute returned calls to discuss the work in more detail.
None of this should be a surprise, I suppose every repressive regime with aspirations of regional hegemony needs a lobbyist.Iran has hired Mark Edmond Clark of New York for $48,000 between June 2006 to May 2007. The paperwork says he is to "coordinate with Mr. Gholamhossein Mohammadnia, or other staff at the Iranian mission to the U.N. when requested, on topics to examine on U.S.-Iran relations ... (c)ontact and attend the meetings of foreign policy, business, and professional associations as requested by mission staff ... and attempt to create opportunities for mission staff to meet with individuals ... and to attend meetings of foreign policy, business and professional associations when possible." Clark told The Politico he is not a lobbyist for Iran; he provides his client with research.
A protester stand in front of an inflatable 'bomb' while being watched by a Policeman during an anti-Trident missile replacement demonstrationat the Faslane Naval base near Glasgow, Scotland March 14, 2007.
The U.S. should not be perplexed if China votes down further sanctions against Iran, which nearly everyone is calling for. Why? Because: Iran biggest crude oil supplier to China
Iran, which may face additional United Nations sanctions after defying a deadline to stop uranium enrichment, was China's leading supplier of crude oil in January.
Shipments from Iran, holder of the world's second-largest oil reserves, rose 13 percent from a year earlier to 2.1 million tonnes, according to General Administration of Customs figures received Thursday. Imports from Iran almost tripled from December's level of 738,000 tonnes.
Beyond Bizzare:
HELSINGIN SANOMAT reports that a bizarre altercation on the train leads to a dispute between Finland and North Korea, and accusations of Finnish human rights violations.
Finland and North Korea found themselves in the middle of a diplomatic spat last week, after two North Korean diplomatic couriers caused a scene on a Moscow to Helsinki train.
According to the Finns, the diplomats had refused to show their train-tickets to the Finnish conductor or their luggage to Customs officials who came on board the train. As a result, a scuffle took place in the train compartment, after which the two North Koreans were bodily escorted to Kouvola police station.
"They roughly threw a female Customs inspector out of the compartment and into the corridor outside. She said that she had been bruised both physically and mentally", reported Tommi Kivilaakso, who heads the Eastern Customs District.
"The problems stemmed from the steep language barrier, because the North Koreans were almost completely without foreign language skills."
The North Koreans have seen the events in Kouvola in a markedly different light. On Friday of last week, the North Korean Embassy in Stockholm passed a diplomatic note to the Finnish Embassy in the Swedish capital, complaining at the actions of the Finnish police, immigration officials, and Customs officers in Kouvola. The note was then delivered to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Helsinki.
The North Korean note makes pretty chilling reading. It states that the Finnish Customs inspectors attempted by force to open the couriers' bags of diplomatic post and acted in a violent manner. For their part, the police who were called to the scene used tear gas and handcuffs on the couriers. In addition to all this, a police dog bit at least one of the men. North Korea accuses Finland of human rights violations and of transgressing against accepted international rules and agreements.
North Korea can scarcely afford to make more enemies. Adding to the list of the U.S. and Japan, they've alienated Russia and China with their detonation of a nuclear bomb, South Korea is doubting its aid, and now Finland can be added to that list. This is the regime with which we are in diplomatic discussions with regarding its nuclear program.A Japanese advocacy group said Tuesday it will use balloons to scatter flyers over North Korea, offering residents a US$10,000 cash reward for information on Japanese citizens kidnapped by the regime decades ago.
Excerpt from George Will on Townhall.com:
The new agreement might not bring Pyongyang to heel. It is, however, unlike that of 1994, in three particulars.
First, China was infuriated by North Korea's October nuclear test which fizzled but expressed defiance of China. So now China seems amenable to serious pressure on its mendicant neighbor, which is substantially dependent on China for food and energy.
Second, the new agreement, like the 1994 pact, is an attempt to modify behavior using bribery. But under the 1994 agreement, North Korea got the bribe -- energy assistance -- before being required to change its behavior. Under the new agreement, North Korea will receive just 5 percent of promised oil -- 50,000 of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil -- before it must fulfill, in 60 days, the first of the many commitments it has made.
Third, the administration believes it found, in Banco Delta Asia, a lever that moved Pyongyang. The Macau bank was pressured into freezing 52 accounts holding $24 million -- yes, million, not billion -- of North Korean assets because Pyongyang has been using them for illicit purposes. If Pyongyang flinched from being deprived of $24 million -- less than Americans spend on archery equipment in a month -- Pyongyang's low pain threshold suggests how fragile, and hence perhaps how containable, that regime is.
Regarding Iraq, the Democratic-controlled Congress could do what Democrats say a Democratic president would do -- withdraw U.S. forces. A president could simply order that; Congress could defund military operations in Iraq. Congressional Democrats are, however, afraid to do that because they lack the courage of their (professed) conviction that Iraq would be made tranquil by withdrawal of U.S. forces.
So they aim to hamstring the president with restrictions on the use of the military. The restrictions ostensibly are concerned with preparedness but actually are designed to prevent deployments to Iraq.
In that welter of criteria there are reasons why the court will not rescue congressional Democrats from facing the logic of their posturing. They lack the will to exercise their clearly constitutional power to defund the war. And they lack the power to achieve that end by usurping the commander in chief's powers to conduct a war.
The arrival of 10 North Koreans here late last week heralds an era of 10,000 defectors a year arriving from the Stalinist country. Until the early 1990s, only a few dozen North Koreans fled the country annually, but the number increased since the mid 1990s famines, to exceed 1,000 people for the first time in 2002 (1,139) and the 2,000 mark in 2005, when 2,019 made the perilous trek. Experts say while it took almost a decade since the first refugees for their number to reach 10,000 a year, that number will double to 20,000 within less than five years. There is also always a chance of a mass exodus.
In North Korea, senior government officials have German-made Mercedes-Benzes, while midlevel officials and Japanese North Koreans drive Japanese cars. Most North Korean institutions also operate Japanese cars for official purposes.
Under Kim's order, all Japanese cars are to be seized or banned from the streets, except for ones given as gifts to secret service agencies, prestigious movie stars and athletes, Yonhap reported quoting the sources.
From One Free Korea:
Sources residing in the district of Chongjin, North Hamkyung informed on the 1st and 5th “On December 20th, a mass group of 120 prisoners from the camp in Hwasung escaped and so the National Safety Agency and the People’s Protection Agency are in a state of emergency” and said “Lately, additional checkpoints have been established at various locations in North Hamkyung inspecting permits for both vehicle and personal travel.”
More:
I discovered Camp 16 accidentally, while google-earthing North Korea recently. I stumbled upon it because it’s not far from Musudan-ri, the place from which North Korea did its missile tests last July.
Tigerhawk covers the details and more, based on a story originally reported by the New York Times here.
